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Explaining Uncertainty Avoidance in Megaprojects: Resource Constraints, Strategic Behaviour, or Institutions?

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  • Thomas Machiels
  • Tine Compernolle
  • Tom Coppens

Abstract

This paper asks why uncertainties are avoided in dominant megaproject practice while planning scholars are increasingly advocating adaptive planning and uncertainty acknowledgement. We propose a novel analytical framework to explain uncertainty avoidance, consisting of two current explanations – resource constraint and strategic behaviour models – and a complementary institutional model. We apply the framework to a seaport megaproject in Flanders to test its validity. Results show that the institutional model increases our understanding of uncertainty avoidance. More attention to planning institutions and far-reaching institutional changes are required to facilitate a move towards uncertainty acknowledgement and adaptive planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Machiels & Tine Compernolle & Tom Coppens, 2021. "Explaining Uncertainty Avoidance in Megaprojects: Resource Constraints, Strategic Behaviour, or Institutions?," Planning Theory & Practice, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 537-555, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rptpxx:v:22:y:2021:i:4:p:537-555
    DOI: 10.1080/14649357.2021.1944659
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    Cited by:

    1. Papamichail, Theodora & Perić, Ana, 2023. "Action-oriented planning methods as a tool for improving regional governance in Switzerland: Evidence from the Sisslerfeld area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Akse, Ruben & Veeneman, Wijnand & Marchau, Vincent & Ritter, Simone, 2023. "Governance of uncertainty in implementing mobility innovations: A comparison of two Dutch cases," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

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