Decision confidence, but not jumping to conclusions bias, is related to paranoia. A study with individuals with severe psychiatric conditions

BackgroundDespite the widespread acceptance of the concept of jumping to conclusions (JTC), recent studies have found no relationship between paranoia and draws to decision (DTD), while results regarding the stimuli salience are contradictory. Additionally, JTC and overconfidence bias are generally encountered together. This study aims to 1) analyse the effect of stimuli salience on JTC and decision confidence, 2) examine the JTC presence and its association with schizophrenia spectrum disorder, and 3) explore the relationship between symptomatology, specifically paranoia, DTD, decision confidence, and Theory of Mind (ToM).MethodsOne hundred and thirty-six individuals (Mage 43.21) diagnosed with Severe Psychiatric Conditions (SPC; Schizophrenia, Affective, and Personality disorders) performed two digitised probabilistic tasks with neutral and salient stimuli, measuring decision confidence, and completed the Symptom Checklist 90-R and the Eyes test.ResultsSalience had no significant effect on DTD or decision confidence. 40.4% of participants presented JTC bias, and schizophrenia diagnosis was not a predictor of it. Paranoia was associated with decision confidence but not with DTD or ToM, while DTD was related to ToM.DiscussionFindings highlight that JTC and response confidence are valuable targets in treating SPC. Implications for future research on the relevance of the JTC measuring method are discussed.