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Fertility preferences and subsequent childbearing in Africa and Asia: A synthesis of evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 populations

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  • John Cleland
  • Kazuyo Machiyama
  • John B. Casterline

Abstract

Survey data on fertility preferences have played a central but controversial role in fertility research and advocacy for family planning. We summarize evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 Asian and African populations on the relationship between preferences and subsequent childbearing. While we found no consistent association between women's desire to delay childbearing and subsequent fertility, the baseline desire of women to stop childbearing was a powerful predictor of subsequent fertility in all populations and increased in strength as overall contraceptive use in the study populations rose. Partners’ desire also exercised some influence but was of modest importance in most populations. However, the correspondence between desire to stop and behaviour was found to be far from perfect. Weak implementation of preferences by contraception is likely to be the major cause of this preference–behaviour discrepancy. Uncertainty and instability in preferences may also contribute to the discrepancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • John Cleland & Kazuyo Machiyama & John B. Casterline, 2020. "Fertility preferences and subsequent childbearing in Africa and Asia: A synthesis of evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 populations," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 74(1), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:1:p:1-21
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1672880
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    Cited by:

    1. Najat Bazah & A. Jesús Sánchez Fuentes, 2024. "Fertility as a variable for tackling the demographic challenge, is having children in Spain an unfulfilled desire?," Working Papers REM 2024/0317, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Aurora Angeli & Silvana Salvini, 2022. "Demography of Mediterranean countries: what does it happen in the two shores?," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 76(2), pages 4-12, April-Jun.
    3. Kaat Van Hoyweghen & Janne Bemelmans & Hendrik Feyaerts & Goedele Van den Broeck & Miet Maertens, 2023. "Small Family, Happy Family? Fertility Preferences and the Quantity–Quality Trade-Off in Sub-Saharan Africa," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-35, December.
    4. Adam Ka-Lok Cheung & Lake Lui, 2024. "The Personal is Political: Political Attitudes, Affective Polarization and Fertility Preferences in Hong Kong," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-23, April.
    5. Öberg, Stefan, 2021. "The casual effect of fertility: The multiple problems with instrumental variables for the number of children in families," SocArXiv peuvz, Center for Open Science.

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