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A mortality model based on a mixture distribution function

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  • Stefano Mazzuco
  • Bruno Scarpa
  • Lucia Zanotto

Abstract

A new mortality model based on a mixture distribution function is proposed. We mix a half-normal distribution with a generalization of the skew-normal distribution. As a result, we get a six-parameter distribution function that has a good fit with a wide variety of mortality patterns. This mixture model is fitted to several mortality data schedules and compared with the Siler (five-parameter) and Heligman–Pollard (eight-parameter) models. Our proposal serves as a convenient compromise between the Heligman–Pollard model (which ensures a good fit with data but is often overparameterized) and the Siler model (which is more compact but fails to capture ‘accident humps’).

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Mazzuco & Bruno Scarpa & Lucia Zanotto, 2018. "A mortality model based on a mixture distribution function," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(2), pages 191-200, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:191-200
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1439519
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucia Zanotto & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Ainhoa-Elena Léger & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "What Can We Learn from the Functional Clustering of Mortality Data? An Application to the Human Mortality Database," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 769-798, November.
    3. Emanuele Aliverti & Stefano Mazzuco & Bruno Scarpa, 2022. "Dynamic modelling of mortality via mixtures of skewed distribution functions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(3), pages 1030-1048, July.
    4. Lanfiuti Baldi, Giacomo & NIGRI, ANDREA, 2023. "An Age-Period-Cohort model for gender gap in youth mortality," OSF Preprints z3qmw, Center for Open Science.
    5. Carlo G. Camarda & Ugofilippo Basellini, 2021. "Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 569-602, July.

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