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Modelling period fertility: Schooling and intervals following a birth in Eastern Africa

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  • Catriona A. Towriss
  • Ian M. Timæus

Abstract

We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Catriona A. Towriss & Ian M. Timæus, 2018. "Modelling period fertility: Schooling and intervals following a birth in Eastern Africa," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 75-90, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:1:p:75-90
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1370121
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Lerch & Thomas Spoorenberg, 2020. "The emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(30), pages 827-858.
    2. Ian M. Timæus & Tom A. Moultrie, 2020. "Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 267-296, February.

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