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A cost of living longer: Projections of the effects of prospective mortality improvement on economic support ratios for 14 advanced economies

Author

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  • Nick Parr
  • Jackie Li
  • Leonie Tickle

Abstract

The economic implications of increasing life expectancy are important concerns for governments in developed countries. The aims of this study were as follows: (i) to forecast mortality for 14 developed countries from 2010 to 2050, using the Poisson Common Factor Model; (ii) to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns on support ratios; and (iii) to calculate labour force participation increases which could offset these effects. The forecast gains in life expectancy correlate negatively with current fertility. Pre-2050 support ratios are projected to fall most in Japan and east-central and southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. A post-2050 recovery is projected for most east-central and southern European countries. The increases in labour force participation needed to counterbalance the effects of mortality improvement are greatest for Japan, Poland, and the Czech Republic, and least for the USA, Canada, Netherlands, and Sweden. The policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Nick Parr & Jackie Li & Leonie Tickle, 2016. "A cost of living longer: Projections of the effects of prospective mortality improvement on economic support ratios for 14 advanced economies," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(2), pages 181-200, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:2:p:181-200
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1190029
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    Cited by:

    1. Nick Parr, 2021. "A New Measure of Fertility Replacement Level in the Presence of Positive Net Immigration," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 243-262, March.
    2. Nick Parr, 2023. "Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 21(1), pages 181-209.
    3. Syazreen Shair & Sachi Purcal & Nick Parr, 2017. "Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Kenneth Wong & Jackie Li & Sixian Tang, 2020. "A modified common factor model for modelling mortality jointly for both sexes," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 181-212, June.

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