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The claim that China's fertility restrictions contributed to the use of prenatal sex selection: A sceptical reappraisal

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  • Daniel Goodkind

Abstract

Most observers assume that China's fertility restrictions contribute to the use of prenatal sex selection. I question the logic and evidence underlying that assumption. Experts often stress that China's low fertility is largely voluntary, and that fertility restrictions are an unneeded safety valve. Others claim that China's '1.5-child' loophole, common throughout rural areas, reinforces son preference or intensifies prenatal sex discrimination by hardening fertility constraints. These claims defy logic upon closer examination. Moreover, almost two-thirds of the exceptional distortion of the sex ratio in 1.5-child areas results from excess underreporting of daughters and enforced sex-specific stopping. Prenatal sex selection may explain the remaining third but probably reflects the stronger rural son preference that led to the 1.5-child loophole itself. The recent surge in sex selection of first births that has perpetuated the distortions also seems unrelated to policy. Some son-preferring parents who formerly wanted two children may now genuinely want only one.

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  • Daniel Goodkind, 2015. "The claim that China's fertility restrictions contributed to the use of prenatal sex selection: A sceptical reappraisal," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(3), pages 263-279, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:263-279
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1103565
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    Cited by:

    1. Susan Greenhalgh, 2018. "Making Demography Astonishing: Lessons in the Politics of Population Science," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(2), pages 721-731, April.
    2. Daniel Goodkind, 2017. "The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1375-1400, August.
    3. Wanru Xiong, 2022. "Dynamics between Regional Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios at Prime Marriageable Ages in China," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(2), pages 545-578, June.
    4. Keiti Kondi, 2023. "Gender Gap, Intra Household Bargaining and Sex Selective Abortion in Albania," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Daniel Goodkind, 2018. "If Science Had Come First: A Billion Person Fable for the Ages (A Reply to Comments)," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(2), pages 743-768, April.

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