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Reconciling discrepancies between registration-based and survey-based estimates of fertility in Mongolia

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  • Thomas Spoorenberg

Abstract

The two main data sources for the estimation of total fertility in Mongolia give figures that differ by between one-half and one child per woman. We investigated two possible explanations for these discrepancies: (i) that data on births collected in the vital registration system are incomplete and under-estimate fertility; and (ii) that fertility is over-estimated when estimates are based on data from sample surveys. We find that the under-counting of single women is the main source of the discrepancies. After adjustment, survey-based fertility estimates are very close to the figures based on data from the vital registration system. The analysis underscores the risks of taking survey-based demographic indicators as the 'Gold Standard'. Demographers need to undertake more systematic studies on this important issue.

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  • Thomas Spoorenberg, 2014. "Reconciling discrepancies between registration-based and survey-based estimates of fertility in Mongolia," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(3), pages 375-382, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:3:p:375-382
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.935461
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    Cited by:

    1. Maxim Kan, 2023. "Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-39, December.
    2. Thomas Spoorenberg, 2014. "Reverse survival method of fertility estimation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(9), pages 217-246.

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