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The gap between births intended and births achieved in 22 European countries, 2004-07

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  • Kristen Harknett
  • Caroline Sten Hartnett

Abstract

Using data from the 2004 and 2007 waves of the European Social Survey (ESS), we find that for every 100 births intended, about 60 births occur, on average, across 22 countries. This shortfall in fertility masks substantial heterogeneity between subgroups within the populations surveyed. Motherhood status, age, partnership status, and the strength of fertility intentions moderate the relationship between women's childbearing plans and births measured at the country level. Individual-level analyses using data from three countries included in the 2005 and 2008 waves of the Generations and Gender Survey are consistent with our country-level analyses. We demonstrate that repeat cross-sectional data can be used to analyse the correspondence between childbearing plans and births when longitudinal data are lacking.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristen Harknett & Caroline Sten Hartnett, 2014. "The gap between births intended and births achieved in 22 European countries, 2004-07," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(3), pages 265-282, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:3:p:265-282
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.899612
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    Cited by:

    1. Soo-Yeon Yoon, 2017. "The influence of a supportive environment for families on women’s fertility intentions and behavior in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(7), pages 227-254.
    2. Melanie Dawn Channon & Sarah Harper, 2019. "Educational differentials in the realisation of fertility intentions: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Gietel-Basten, Stuart & LoPalo, Melissa & Spears, Dean & Vyas, Sangita, 2024. "Do fertility preferences in early adulthood predict later average fertility outcomes of the same cohort?: Pritchett (1994) revisited with cohort data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    4. Eva Beaujouan, 2018. "Late Fertility Intentions and Fertility in Austria," VID Working Papers 1806, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.

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