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How slowing senescence translates into longer life expectancy

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  • Joshua Goldstein
  • Thomas Cassidy

Abstract

Mortality decline has historically been largely a result of reductions in the level of mortality at all ages. A number of leading researchers on ageing, however, suggest that the next revolution of longevity increase will be the result of slowing down the rate of ageing. In this paper, we show mathematically how varying the pace of senescence influences life expectancy. We provide a formula that holds for any baseline hazard function. Our result is analogous to Keyfitz's ‘entropy’ relationship for changing the level of mortality. Interestingly, the influence of the shape of the baseline schedule on the effect of senescence changes is the complement of that found for level changes. We also provide a generalized formulation that mixes level and slope effects. We illustrate the applicability of these models using recent mortality decline in Japan and the problem of period to cohort translation.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Goldstein & Thomas Cassidy, 2012. "How slowing senescence translates into longer life expectancy," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(1), pages 29-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:1:p:29-37
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2011.635215
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomasz Wrycza & Annette Baudisch, 2012. "How life expectancy varies with perturbations in age-specific mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(13), pages 365-376.
    2. Qing Zou & Yingsi Lai & Zhao-Rong Lun, 2023. "Exploring the Association between Oxygen Concentration and Life Expectancy in China: A Quantitative Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-13, January.
    3. Andrew Fenelon, 2013. "An examination of black/white differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(17), pages 441-472.
    4. Christina Bohk-Ewald & Marcus Ebeling & Roland Rau, 2017. "Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1559-1577, August.

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