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Predicting try scoring in super 14 rugby union – the development of a superior attacking team scoring system

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  • Eugene Lim
  • Brendan Lay
  • Brian Dawson
  • Karen Wallman
  • Scott Anderson

Abstract

The aim of this study was to determine if consecutive periods of attacking superiority, as determined by a developed Team Attacking Superiority (TAS) scoring system, could predict try scoring in Super 14 rugby. Game data from 9 games where the Crusaders, Force and Lions played each other in the 2006, 2007 and 2008 competition seasons were analysed. A Player Impact Ranking matrix, developed in an earlier study (Lim et al., 2009), was modified to create a Team Impact Ranking (TIR) matrix. The TIR was then used to calculate the TAS scores to assess consecutive periods of attacking dominance by a team. Results showed that 67% of tries scored resulted from teams maintaining 3 consecutive TAS periods or less. Although the majority of tries scored were from ≤ 3 consecutive TAS periods, odd ratios revealed that teams were 11.76 times more likely to convert TAS periods into tries scored if they were able to attain 4 or more TAS periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugene Lim & Brendan Lay & Brian Dawson & Karen Wallman & Scott Anderson, 2011. "Predicting try scoring in super 14 rugby union – the development of a superior attacking team scoring system," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 464-475, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpanxx:v:11:y:2011:i:3:p:464-475
    DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2011.11868565
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