Mobility Incidence and Turnover as Components of Neighborhood Racial and Ethnic Change in New York City, 1991 to 1996

High levels of immigration to New York City have raised questions concerning the resulting spatial distributions of racial and ethnic groups and the way immigration is linked to neighborhood transition. Aggregate-level studies of neighborhood transition have suggested possible individual-level processes leading to varying neighborhood configurations, but have not tested them directly.Using a “stock and flow” approach and matched observations of housing units for New York City during the 1991 to 1996 period, we analyze the patterns and predictors of mobility incidence among native-born white households and of turnover between native-born white out-moving households and in-moving immigrant and native-born households from four racial/ethnic groups (whites, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians) to evaluate the assumptions made by aggregate-level studies of neighborhood transition. In general, our results strongly suggest that the results of Census 2000 will reveal increased segregation among immigrants and non-English-speaking people, as well as a continuation of the high levels of racial and ethnic segregation that have long characterized New York City’s neighborhoods.