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Improving Median Housing Price Indexes through Stratification

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  • Nalini Prasad
  • Anthony Richards

Abstract

There is a trade-off between how easy a housing price series is to construct and the extent to which it adjusts for changes in the mix of dwellings sold. Median house price measures are easily calculated, frequently used by industry bodies, and quoted in the media. However, such measures provide poor estimates of short-term changes in prices because they reflect changes in the composition of transactions, as well as changes in demand and supply conditions. This study uses a database of 3.5 million transactions in the six largest Australian cities to demonstrate that compositional shifts between higher- and lower-priced parts of cities can account for much of the noise in median price measures. Accordingly, a simple method of adjusting for compositional change through stratification is proposed. The measure differs from those commonly used internationally, as neighborhoods or small geographic regions are grouped according to the long-term average price level of dwellings in those regions. The measure of price growth produced improves substantially upon a median and is very highly correlated with regression-based measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Nalini Prasad & Anthony Richards, 2008. "Improving Median Housing Price Indexes through Stratification," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 45-72, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjerxx:v:30:y:2008:i:1:p:45-72
    DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2008.12091213
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    Cited by:

    1. David Genesove & James Hansen, 2014. "Predicting Dwelling Prices with Consideration of the Sales Mechanism," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. James Hansen, 2009. "Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat‐Sales Measures," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 132-145, June.
    3. Steven C. Bourassa & Martin Hoesli & Donato Scognamiglio & Philippe Sormani, 2008. "Constant-Quality House Price Indexes for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(IV), pages 561-575, December.
    4. Juan José Balsa F. & Javiera Vásquez N., 2023. "Índice de Precios de Vivienda Banco Central de Chile 2022," Economic Statistics Series 141, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    6. Katja Hanewald & Michael Sherris, 2013. "Postcode-Level House Price Models for Banking and Insurance Applications," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(286), pages 411-425, September.
    7. Genesove, David & Hansen, James, 2016. "The Role of Auctions and Negotiation in Housing Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 11392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Juan José Balsa & Javiera Vásquez, 2023. "Valor de mercado de la vivienda y sus componentes de tierra y construcción," Economic Statistics Series 139, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Asli Kaya & Ayça Topaloglu Bozkurt & Emine Meltem Bastan & Özgül Atilgan Ayanoglu, 2013. "Constructing a house price index for Turkey," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 153-171, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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