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Exploring precise poverty alleviation policies based on causal inference: a case study from China

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  • Qing Guo
  • Youyang Liu
  • Min Zhu

Abstract

To explore the effect of targeted poverty alleviation policies in Guangdong Province from the perspective of causal inference, this paper conducts quantitative research based on panel data of poverty-stricken counties in Guangdong Province from 2013 to 2020. Specifically, breakpoint regression is used to analyze the initial effect of the policy, instrumental variables are used to analyze the long-term effect of the policy implementation, and finally, the generalized comprehensive control method is used to make a comparative study. The results show that: (1) The targeted poverty alleviation policy in Guangdong Province has a remarkable effect on poverty reduction; (2) The effect of targeted poverty alleviation policy is still remarkable by comparing the implemented policy with the unimplemented one in Guangdong Province; (3) The improvement of market economic activity can effectively promote the increase of farmers’ personal net income in poor areas of Guangdong Province.

Suggested Citation

  • Qing Guo & Youyang Liu & Min Zhu, 2024. "Exploring precise poverty alleviation policies based on causal inference: a case study from China," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 2170-2190, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:29:y:2024:i:4:p:2170-2190
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2023.2264091
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