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Is Vietnam's exchange rate overvalued?

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  • Duy Hung Bui
  • Anthony J Makin
  • Shyama Ratnasiri

Abstract

This paper focuses on Vietnam's exchange rate whose official rate has been pegged by the State Bank against the US dollar since 1989 despite wider market liberalisation over this time. Whether Vietnam's official exchange rate is appropriately valued has important implications for the economy's international competitiveness, trade balance and gross domestic product (GDP). The main aim of the paper is to assess whether the official exchange rate has been valued appropriately with reference to macroeconomic fundamentals, as proposed by the purchasing power parity and the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate approaches to evaluating equilibrium exchange rates. Our main empirical finding based on co-integration analysis using quarterly data from 1995 to 2014 is that according to both these approaches the Vietnamese Dong was significantly overvalued for extended times, most notably due to Vietnam's relatively high inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Duy Hung Bui & Anthony J Makin & Shyama Ratnasiri, 2017. "Is Vietnam's exchange rate overvalued?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 357-371, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:357-371
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2016.1270041
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    3. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, April.
    4. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    5. Tino Berger & Bernd Kempa, 2009. "A new approach to estimating equilibrium exchange rates for small open economies: The case of Canada," CQE Working Papers 0509, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    6. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

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