Pensions as an Engine of Growth. An Approach to the Spanish Case, Based on the Sraffian Supermultiplier

In this paper, following Cesaratto's lead (Cesaratto, [2005]. Pension Reform and Economic Theory: A Non-Orthodox Analysis. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, especially chapters 6-8), we measure the impact of pensioners' spending on output and employment in the Spanish economy in 2021 by means of the Sraffian supermultiplier, taking pensioners' expenditure as a component of autonomous demand. To do so, we follow another lead, from Dejuán (Dejuan, [2023]. The Supermultiplier. A Cornerstone of the New Macroeconomics. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, chapter 10), who suggests using the Leontief inverse of an extended SAM (social accounting matrix) that also includes both induced consumption and expansionary investment as a multisectoral supermultiplier, or multiplier-accelerator. The weight of PAYG pensions to people aged 65 or older in 2021 is 8 per cent of GDP, and their expenditure ‘puts in motion’ 6,7 per cent of total production and total employment (directly, indirectly, and hyper-indirect or induced). The government recovers 42 cents in taxes for each euro spent on pensions. Pensions in 2050 are sustainable, either raising taxes on profits or if exports grow pari passu with pensions at a rate below historical records.