Losing Lomé: the potential impact of the commission guidelines on the ACP non‐least developed countries

Relations between European Union (EU) states and associated underdeveloped economies (the ACP states) have been largely governed by the Lomé Conventions. Likely difficulties in gaining World Trade Organisation (WTO) approval for a renewal of Lomé IV in its current form, and recognition that Lomé has been an insufficient support to the ACP group, has led the European Commission to search for an alternative framework. Its proposed new guidelines bring the debate forward on what a politically and legally feasible, and economically mutually beneficial framework might involve. They include a proposal that aid be focused on countries with a proven commitment to poverty eradication and conflict prevention, and offer Lomé‐style access to non‐ACP Least Developed Countries (LLDCs). Yet they fail to respond to ACP trade interests, and sit uneasily with the stated development aims of previous Lomé conventions. ACP non‐LLDC's will have to chose between negotiating ill‐defined Free Trade Agreements (FTA), or acceeding to the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), markedly reducing access to EU markets. The costs ‐ in foreign exchange foregone and livelihoods destroyed ‐ could be considerable, as is shown by case studies of Zimbabwe, Ghana, and the Windward Islands. Summary recommendations are made, finally, as to how EU trade preferences for ACP countries might best meet the needs of the majority, including a ten year waiver, allowing scope to adjust to new competitive pressures and to begin diversification of export bases; and simplified access to EU markets for the LLDC's.