Dynamic pricing and inventory control of online retail of fresh agricultural products with forward purchase behavior

In this paper we formulate and analyze a novel model on a retailer’s inventory and pricing decisions for fresh agricultural products with consumers’ forward consuming behavior under online channel. We consider a dynamic stochastic setting, where every period consists of two stages, discounting pricing stage and regular sale stage. At the beginning of the period, the retailer decides how much new fresh agricultural products to order and sets discount price for leftover inventories from the previous period which will be disposed otherwise, and determines regular price for fresh products on the second stage, respectively. Since forward purchase consumers may buy the products during discount pricing stage, which may cannibalize future sales at regular price, the retailer needs to make a trade-off decision between regular price and discounting price. We bring forward a dynamic optimization model and use nonlinear programming method of Karush Kuhn Tucker condition to obtain the optimal dynamic strategy, which is comparatively analyzed to dominate the related static strategy. We also show that consumers forward buying behavior will negatively influence the retailer’s profit. When the price is set too low in regular or discounting sales, the profit will show an up-down trend if the inventory exceeds a certain threshold. Meanwhile, when fresh goods returns are allowed and resold in the secondary stage, the retailer’s profit will increase. We finally conduct numerical studies to further characterize the optimal policy, and to evaluate the loss of efficiency under static policies when compared to the optimal dynamic policy.