Some considerations about tourist arrivals and the COVID-19 pandemic – evidence from Slovenia and Croatia

In late 2019 and early 2020, a sudden but not unexpected external shock occurred in the tourism industry. This study presents an explorative analysis of the literature review discussing a predicted exogenous shock in tourism caused by the appearance of viruses. Furthermore, the vector autoregressive (V.A.R.) models and panel econometrics is used to analyse and model the impact of the COVID-19 pandemics on tourist arrivals in Slovenia and Croatia. Applied analysis is used to test tourism artefacts in the short term on daily data for 2020. The results of econometric modelling and data plotting confirm significant volatilities in the analysed time-series and their peculiar response to the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourist arrivals. Therefore, innovative tourism policy and management should not expect pre-pandemic values and demand; moreover, tourist expectations will change drastically in a calamitous decade, while several other determinants, not only COVID-19, will influence tourist arrivals. The study is novel in two respects. First, the study adds value to empirical research on the determinants of tourism demand. Moreover, the study can be considered a starting point for further short-, medium- and long-term econometric analyses of sudden shocks affecting tourism demand and government decisions affecting tourism supply.