The effects of logistics performance on international trade: EU15 vs CEMS

Even though trade tariffs have generally fallen since the GATT agreement, non-tariff trade barriers still exist and show an upward trend. An important type of non-tariff trade barrier is logistics service related to the transport of goods to foreign markets. Efficient logistics is of great importance for small and open economies such as the Central and Eastern European EU member countries that became EU members in 2004 or later and are in the process of economic convergence with the old EU member countries, mostly through trade. On the other hand, logistics is important for old EU member countries because it influences competitiveness in global supply chains. The aim of this paper is to examine the homogeneity of the two blocks of EU countries in terms of logistics performance, i.e. to examine the impact of logistics performance on the international bilateral trade of the EU15 and CEMS with the rest of the world in the period 2010–2018. We develop and estimate a structural gravity model with Poisson pseudo-maximum probability estimator, using the LPI and its sub-indices as the main independent variables of interest. Our results show that differences in LPI values have heterogenous impact on bilateral trade, especially when considering trade in different classes of goods and different groups of country pairs.