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European house price deviation: infectivity and the momentum effect

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  • I-Chun Tsai

Abstract

This study investigated whether house price deviation (irrational house prices) between European countries is mutually contagious or whether irrational behaviour in relation to house prices is mainly caused by domestic factors. This study investigated eight eurozone countries and the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) house price deviation was estimated using the house price–income model, after which the price deviation in each country was analysed and divided into the components of self-influence and influence from other housing markets. The U.K.’s house price deviation was discovered to have the greatest impact on the other European housing markets, whereas France’s house price deviation was the most affected by the other housing markets. Italy’s house price deviation was the least relevant to the other markets with a 95.5% rate of change and susceptibility to domestic changes. This study quantified the dynamic assessment for infectivity and self-influence in relation to house price deviation and discovered that apart from Italy, whether other countries’ levels of infection in relation to house price deviation were significantly correlated to their domestic inflation rates. Finally, the empirical results of this study indicate that the U.K.’s high inflation rate had a significant impact on the imbalance in the eurozone housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • I-Chun Tsai, 2019. "European house price deviation: infectivity and the momentum effect," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 1521-1541, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:reroxx:v:32:y:2019:i:1:p:1521-1541
    DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2019.1636698
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