Investable Real Estate Allocations in a Mixed Asset Portfolio; Both Long Term and During Different Cycles

The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) data starts in 1978 and has been used as a benchmark index for over 45 years. In 2006 NCREIF created the NCREIF Open-End Diversified Core Equity Index (ODCE) and used historic fund level data to create performance data back to 1978. ODCE was the first “investable index” in direct real estate for institutional investors, family offices, and high net worth investors who can meet these direct funds’ minimum investment levels (typically $5 million). Individual investors with less money can also access ODCE returns through Interval Funds or “Fund-of-Funds” that invest in and are designed to track or beat the ODCE Index. Since 2009 general partners of funds are required to update their net asset value (NAV) to “fair market value” on a quarterly basis as a result of Topic 820 of the Financial Accounting Standards Board. Both ODCE funds and interval funds have improved their liquidity with either monthly or quarterly redemption options, making them more competitive (from a liquidity aspect) with publicly traded securities. We analyze portfolio allocations over 45 years – the longest time frame ever studied and over 6 NEBR economic cycles and 4 ODCE real estate return cycles using Markowitz efficient frontier analysis. We inspect up-cycle and down-cycle periods separately and add to the literature by analyzing the ¼, ½, and ¾ points (low, medium, and high risk/return points) along the Markowitz efficient frontier. Our findings support many of the 45 studies published, but conflict with some depending upon their study methodology and time frame (9 to 25 years) studied. We conclude that real estate would have improved historic risk adjusted returns in many cycle periods.Direct real estate investment and public REIT inclusion in a mixed asset portfolio with stocks and bonds are analyzed over a 45-year period (the longest period ever studied) through 6-economic cycles and 4-real estate cycles. Optimal asset class allocations are analyzed at low – medium – and high risk/return points on the Markowitz efficient frontier curve. The results show that both direct real estate and REITs improved historic mixed asset portfolio returns. Direct real estate’s high-income return (76% of total return historically in the NPI-ODCE Index) – potentially makes real estate a bond like substitute. Real estate was historically a very competitive asset class, with strong efficient frontier allocations overall (especially in higher return portfolios) and in most economic and real estate cycle periods. Investors should consider increasing future direct and public real estate (REIT) allocations in their portfolios.