IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/repmxx/v19y2013i3p179-188.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Retail Real Estate Cycles as Markov Chains

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Evans
  • Glenn Mueller

Abstract

Executive Summary. Commercial real estate markets across cities evolve with considerable risk with respect to variables such as rent levels and growth, occupancy levels and trends, capital market developments, and construction conditions. The complex patterns are more understandable with the help of the real estate cycle models reviewed here. Describing the future with a set of alternative cycle points and their anticipated probabilities is an application of a well-developed area of probability theory, Markov chain analysis. Numerical examples show how descriptions of cycle conditions in an initial period can be used to generate risk formatted descriptions of cycle conditions. The results are plausible descriptions of future risks. Standard Markov chain calculations allow the real estate cycle analyst to anticipate the proportion of quarters that a market will reside in each cycle point.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Evans & Glenn Mueller, 2013. "Retail Real Estate Cycles as Markov Chains," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 179-188, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:repmxx:v:19:y:2013:i:3:p:179-188
    DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2013.12089955
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10835547.2013.12089955
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10835547.2013.12089955?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:repmxx:v:19:y:2013:i:3:p:179-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/repm20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.