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Real Estate as a Surrogate for Bonds: A Dynamic Asset Allocation View

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  • Ronald Kaiser

Abstract

Executive Summary. Twenty-five years of experience with high bond yields, combined with appreciation resulting from gradually declining interest rates, has produced an investor mind-set that bonds should occupy a major portion of a mixed-asset portfolio. However, that historical experience is not the norm. The long-term average bond return since 1926 is only 5.7%. With current Treasury bonds yielding only 4% to 5%, perhaps the allocation to bonds should be reconsidered. Instead of bonds, private market real estate is found to comparably fill the need for high and stable income yields, combined with a long-term return that is potentially superior to bonds. The study reveals that the typical stock / bond—with a little real estate—portfolio should probably be balanced between substantial portions of stocks and real estate, with only a very small allocation to bonds in only very risk averse portfolios.

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  • Ronald Kaiser, 2004. "Real Estate as a Surrogate for Bonds: A Dynamic Asset Allocation View," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 23-35, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:repmxx:v:10:y:2004:i:1:p:23-35
    DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2004.12089694
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