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Fiscal policy, public investment and structural change: a P-SVAR analysis on Italian regions

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  • Francesco Zezza
  • Dario Guarascio

Abstract

This study analyses the regional impact of public expenditures focusing on three domains central to the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP): green, digital and knowledge. Relying on a regional public expenditures sectoral dataset for the period 2000–19, we perform a panel structural vector autoregressive (P-SVAR) model showing that fiscal policy has positive and long-lasting effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and private investments. A relevant heterogeneity is detected, relative to: (1) the effects of sectoral spending in crowding-in investment; (2) the impact on regions’ ‘structural upgrading’; and (3) a discrepancy in fiscal multipliers across macro-areas. Nevertheless, the results suggest that the NRRP may help in reducing the Italian divide.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Zezza & Dario Guarascio, 2024. "Fiscal policy, public investment and structural change: a P-SVAR analysis on Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(6), pages 1356-1373, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:58:y:2024:i:6:p:1356-1373
    DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2023.2251533
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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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