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Are Regional Elections really ‘Second-Order’ Elections?

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  • Arjan H. Schakel
  • Charlie Jeffery

Abstract

Schakel A. H. and Jeffery C. Are regional elections really ‘second-order’ elections, Regional Studies . This article critically assesses the applicability of the second-order election model to regional elections. It offers first a critique of the second-order election model, arguing that the model has imported an inappropriate ‘nationalizing’ bias into the study of regional elections. Second, the article conducts an empirical analysis that shows that second-order election predictions do not appear to hold for regional elections which take place (1) in political settings where regional elections do not have the potential to signal a future alternation of government at the national level; (2) in authoritative, powerful regions; and (3) in regions where non-state-wide parties compete in regional elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjan H. Schakel & Charlie Jeffery, 2013. "Are Regional Elections really ‘Second-Order’ Elections?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 323-341, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:47:y:2013:i:3:p:323-341
    DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2012.690069
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    Cited by:

    1. Fiedler, Charlotte & Mross, Karina & Berg, Anna & Bhattarai, Prakash & Drees, Dorothea & Kornprobst, Tim & Leibbrandt, Alexandra & Liegmann, Philipp & Riebsamen, Maleen, 2022. "What role do local elections play for societal peace in Nepal? Evidence from post-conflict Nepal," IDOS Discussion Papers 4/2022, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    2. Hajo G. Boomgaarden & David Johann & Sylvia Kritzinger, 2016. "Voting at National versus European Elections: An Individual Level Test of the Second Order Paradigm for the 2014 European Parliament Elections," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 130-144.
    3. Stiers, Dieter & Dassonneville, Ruth, 2018. "Affect versus cognition: Wishful thinking on election day," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 199-215.
    4. Dorian Alt & Erik Brandes & David Nonhoff, 2023. "First Order for some. How Different Forms of Politicization Motivated Voters in the 2019 European Parliamentary Election," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 362-378, March.

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