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Comparison of Gravity Model, Survey and Location Quotient-based Local Area Tables and Multipliers

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  • Geoff Riddington
  • Hervey Gibson
  • John Anderson

Abstract

Riddington G., Gibson H. and Anderson J. (2006) Comparison of gravity model, survey and location quotient-based local area tables and multipliers, Regional Studies 40, 1-13. Regional economic impact assessment requires relevant local area multipliers. The best approach is to establish a local input-output table, which is a time-consuming, data-exhaustive process. Some authors have instead used national tables or national tables modified to reflect regional specializations. The apparent limitations of these approaches led to the development of a gravity model-based method for estimating local trade and input-output tables. A description of this model is the main focus of the first part of this paper. Whilst this approach appeared to produce reasonable results, it was unclear how significantly the outcomes differed from tables produced by survey or utilizing national and location quotient-based tables. A comparison of these for the Moray, Badenoch and Strathspey Enterprise Area in Scotland is the main subject of the second half of the paper. The results confirm earlier findings that the national or location quotient approaches may produce misleading results. The gravity model-based approach, on the other hand, produces similar results to the survey and has the added advantage of being comprehensive and compatible with the other 40 plus tables produced for other areas of Scotland. It is suggested, therefore, that this approach be utilized and extended. Riddington G., Gibson H. et Anderson J. (2006) Une comparaison des tableaux et des multiplicateurs locaux construits a partir des modeles de gravite, des enquetes et des quotients de localisation, Regional Studies 40, 1-13. Une etude de l'impact economique regional necessite des multiplicateurs locaux pertinents. La meilleure approche serait la construction d'un tableau d'echanges inter-industriels, un processus qui prend du temps et qui s'avere statistiquement tres detaille. Certains chercheurs ont plutot employe des tableaux nationaux ou des tableaux nationaux modifies afin de tenir compte des specialisations regionales. Les limites evidentes de ces approches ont amene au developpement d'une approche fondee sur un modele de gravite qui estime des tableaux relatifs au commerce local et aux echanges inter-industriels. Dans un premier temps, alors, cet article porte principalement sur une description de ce modele. Alors que cette approche semblait fournir des resultats raisonnables, il n'etait pas tout a fait evident dans quelle mesure les resultats variaient de ceux des tableaux construits a partir des enquetes ou des quotients nationaux et de localisation. Dans un deuxieme temps, alors, cet article porte sur une comparaison de ces dernieres approches pour la zone d'entreprise de Moray, Badenoch et Strathspey. Les resultats confirment les conclusions anterieures: il se peut que les approches fondees sur les quotients nationaux et de localisation fournissent des resultats trompeurs. D'autre part, l'approche fondee sur un modele de gravite fournit des resultats similaires a ceux de l'enquete et, en plus, est detaillee et correspond aux quarante autres tableaux fournis pour d'autres zones ecossaises. On laisse supposer, alors, que cette approche devrait etre employee et approfondie. Echanges inter-industriels Multiplicateurs Modeles de gravite Riddington G., Gibson H. und Anderson J. (2006) Ein Vergleich sich auf Schwerkraftsmodell, Untersuchung und Standortquotient stuzender Ortsgebietstabellen und Multiplikatoren, Regional Studies 40, 1-13. Regionalwirtschaftliche Auswirkungsbeurteilung verlangt diesbezugliche Ortsgebietsmultiplikatoren. Der beste Ansatz ist die Aufstellung einer Ortsaufwands-/Ertragstabelle, ein Zeit erforderndes, Daten verschlingendes Verfahren. Manche Autoren haben stattdessen Landestabellen benutzt, bzw. Landertabellen so modifiziert, dass sie regionale Spezialisierungen widerspiegeln. Die offensichtlich beschrankten Moglichkeiten dieser Ansatze fuhrten zur Entwicklung einer auf einem Schwerkraftmodells beruhenden Methode zur Berechnung des Handels vor Ort und der Aufwands-/Ertragstabellen angewandt wird. Die Beschreibung dieses Modells steht im Mittelpunkt des ersten Teils des Aufsatzes. Obschon dieser Ansatz annehmbare Resultate zu zeitigen schien, blieb es doch unklar, wie signifikant die Ergebnisse von den Tabellen abwichen, die durch Untersuchungen oder auf Landesebene bzw. Standortquotienten basierende Tabellen gewonnen wurden. Vergleiche der Ergebnisse fur die Fordergebiete von Morey, Badenoch und Strathspey in Schottland bilden den Hauptgegenstand der zweiten Halfte des Aufsatzes. Die Ergebnisse bestatigen fruhere Befunde, dass uberregionale oder ortsgebundene Quotientenansatze zu irrefuhrenden Ergebnissen fuhren konnen. Der auf dem Schwerkraftsmodell fussende Ansatz fuhrt jedoch zu ahnlichen Resultaten wie die Untersuchung und hat zusatzlich den Vorteil, umfassend und mit 40 oder mehr Tabellen, die fur andere Gebiete Schottlands zusammengestellt wurden, vereinbar zu sein. Es wird daher vorgeschlagen, diesen Ansatz zu verwenden und auszuweiten. Aufwand/Ertrag Multiplikatoren Schwerkraftmodelle Riddington G., Gibson H. y Anderson J. (2006) Comparacion de tablas y multiplicadores para zonas locales basados en modelos de gravedad, estudios y cocientes de ubicacion, Regional Studies 40, 1-13. Para evaluar el impacto en la economia regional es necesario disponer de los multiplicadores pertinentes para la zona local. El mejor enfoque es establecer una tabla input-output local, un proceso que requiere muchos datos detallados y tiempo. Algunos autores utilizan tablas nacionales o estas tablas modificadas de modo que reflejan las especializaciones regionales. Las obvias limitaciones de estos enfoques han llevado al desarrollo de un metodo basado en el modelo de gravedad para calcular el comercio local y las tablas de input-output. En la primera parte de este articulo se da una descripcion de este modelo. Si bien este enfoque parecia producir resultados razonables, no estaba claro el grado en el que se diferenciaban los resultados de las tablas producidas por un estudio o utilizando tablas nacionales y tablas basadas en el cociente segun el lugar. En la segunda parte de este articulo el principal tema es comparar estas tablas para las areas empresariales de Moray, Badenoch y Strathspey en Escocia. Los resultados confirman los hallazgos anteriores de que los enfoques de cocientes nacionales o locales pueden producir resultados erroneos. Por otra parte, el enfoque basado en el modelo de gravedad arroja resultados similares al estudio y tiene la ventaja anadida de ser global y compatible con las otras mas de 40 tablas producidas para otras zonas de Escocia. Por ende, sugiero que se utilice y amplie este enfoque. Input-output Multiplicadores Modelos de gravedad

Suggested Citation

  • Geoff Riddington & Hervey Gibson & John Anderson, 2006. "Comparison of Gravity Model, Survey and Location Quotient-based Local Area Tables and Multipliers," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(9), pages 1069-1081.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:40:y:2006:i:9:p:1069-1081
    DOI: 10.1080/00343400601047374
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Harris & Aying Liu, 1998. "Input-Output Modelling of the Urban and Regional Economy: The Importance of External Trade," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(9), pages 851-862.
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    6. Timo Tohmo, 2004. "New Developments in the Use of Location Quotients to Estimate Regional Input-Output Coefficients and Multipliers," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 43-54.
    7. Vido, Erica & Prentice, Barry E., 2003. "The Use of Proxy Variables in Economic Gravity Models: A Cautionary Note," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 42(01).
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