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The Influence of NAFTA on Socio-economic Variables for the US-Mexico Border Region

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  • David Yoskowitz
  • James Giermanski
  • Rolando Pena-Sanchez

Abstract

This paper analyses the relationship between the increased levels of trade moving through one of the busiest regions on the southern border of the US and three socio-economic variables: employment; per capita income; and unemployment rates. The authors use non-parametric regression and bootstrapping techniques to measure the significance in the rates of change of the three socio-economic variables versus both time and trade. The growth rates in employment and per capita income are found to be significantly lower post NAFTA while the rate of change in the unemployment rate stays constant. Cet article cherche a analyser le rapport entre la hausse du volume des echanges qui transitent par l'une des regions les plus actives a la frontiere sud des Etats-Unis et trois variables socio-economiques: a savoir, l'emploi, le revenu par tete, et le taux de chomage. On emploie des techniques de regression et de ''bootstrap'' non-parametriques pour mesurer l'importance du taux de changement des trois variables socio-economiques sur le temps et par rapport aux echanges. Les taux de croissance de l'emploi et du revenu par tete s'averent nettement inferieurs apres l'etablissement de la NAFTA tandis que le taux de changement du chomage reste stable. Dieser Aufsatz analysiert die Beziehung zwischen dem wachsenden Umfang des Handels, der in einer der verkehrsreichsten Regionen an der Sudgrenze der USA getatigt wird, und drei sozio-okonomischen Variablen: Erwerbsfahigkeit, pro-Kopf Einkommen und Erwerbslosigkeitsraten. Die Autoren bedienen sich nonparametrischer Regressions- und 'bootstrapping' Techniken, um die Signifikanz in den Veranderungsraten der drei sozio-okonomischen Variablen gegen Zeit und Handel zu messen. Die Wachstumsraten der Erwerbstatigkeit und des pro-Kopf Einkommens erweisen sich als bedeutend geringer nach dem Inkrafttreten des NAFTA, wahrend Veranderungen in der Erwerbslosenrate gleichbleiben.

Suggested Citation

  • David Yoskowitz & James Giermanski & Rolando Pena-Sanchez, 2002. "The Influence of NAFTA on Socio-economic Variables for the US-Mexico Border Region," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 25-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:36:y:2002:i:1:p:25-31
    DOI: 10.1080/00343400120099834
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucinda Vargas, 1999. "NAFTA's first five years (part 1)," Business Frontier, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2011. "A North American Free Trade Agreement: Analytical Issues and a Computational Assessment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 40, pages 557-575, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. repec:fth:michin:289 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Robin Leichenko & Julie Silva, 2004. "International Trade, Employment and Earnings: Evidence from US Rural Counties," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 355-374.
    2. Tim Slack & Joachim Singelmann & Kayla Fontenot & Dudley L. Poston & Sáenz Rogelio & Carlos Siordia, 2009. "Poverty in the Texas borderland and lower Mississippi Delta: A comparative analysis of differences by family type," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(15), pages 353-376.

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