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Limited Linkage, Demand Shifts and the Transboundary Transmission of Regional Growth

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  • Arthur Silvers

Abstract

SILVERS A. L. (2000) Limited linkage, demand shifts and the transboundary transmission of regional growth, Reg. Studies 34 , 239-251. The Maquiladora Program and NAFTA were expected to open previously protected markets to transboundary investment and trade, thereby transmitting development across the US-Mexico border. But the effectiveness of neo-liberal policies depends upon the magnitude of intersectoral linkages that connect the economies on both sides of the border, and upon market disruptions such as exchange rate shifts. The economic linkages between the adjacent states of Arizona in the US and Sonora in Mexico, and their sensitivity to exchange rate changes, are estimated and used to analyse the effects of these policies and of the peso devaluation on the incomes of both regions. The growth of the maquiladora sector during the first year of NAFTA, together with multiplier impacts, yielded greater income growth for Arizona than for Sonora. The pattern of exchange rate elasticities served to dampen the impact of the peso crash by reducing Sonoran demand propensities for Arizona goods and increasing the maquiladora employment of Sonoran labour, although at lower real wages. SILVERS A. L. (2000) Maillons limites, deplacements de la demande, et transmission transfrontaliere de la croissance regionale, Reg. Studies 34 , 239-251. A partir du programme maquiladora (usine de montage) et de l'Association nordamericaine de libre echange, on s'attendait a l'ouverture des marches, jusqu'ici proteges, a l'investissement et aux echanges transfrontaliers, transmettant ainsi le developpement au-dela de la frontiere entre les Etats-Unis et le Mexique. Cependant, l'efficacite des politiques neo-liberales depend de l'importance des maillons intersectoriels qui relient les economies des deux cotes de la frontiere, et des perturbations dans les marches tels les glissements des taux de change. Les maillons economiques qui relient deux etats limitrophes, tels Arizona aux Etats-Unis et Sonora au Mexique, et leur sensibilite aux variations des taux de change, se voient estimer et employer afin d'analyser l'impact de ces politiques et de la devaluation du peso sur les revenus des deux regions. Conjointement avec les effets multiplicateurs, la croissance du secteur maquiladora a rapporte une croissance du revenu plus soutenue pour Arizona que pour Sonora pendant la premiere annee depuis l'etablissement de l'Association nord-americaine de libre echange. La structure des elasticites des taux de change a servi a attenuer l'impact du krach du peso en reduisant les propensions de Sonora a demander des biens en provenance d'Arizona et en augmentant l'emploi dans le secteur maquiladora a Sonora, quoique les salaires reels soient moins eleves. SILVERS A. L. (2000) Begrenzte Verknupfung, Verschiebungen in Nachfrage und die grenzuberschreitende Ubertragung regionalen Wachstums, Reg. Studies 34 , 239-251. Man hatte erwartet, das maquiladora Programm und NAFTA wurden grenzuberschreitende Investierungen und Handel zuvor geschutzter Markte erschliessen, und dadurch Entwicklung uber die mexikanisch-amerikanische Grenze tragen, doch die Wirksamkeit der neo-liberalen Bestrebungen hangt vom Umfang intersektoraler Verknupfungen ab, welche die Wirtschaften beiderseits der Grenze verbinden, und vom Storungen am Markt, wie z.B. Verschiebungen im Wechselkurs. Die wirtschaftlichen Verknupfungen zwischen den Nachbarstaaten Arizonas in den USA und Sonora in Mexiko sowie ihre empfindliche Reaktion auf Veranderungen im Wechselkurs werden geschatzt und dazu benutzt, die Auswirkungen dieser Bestrebungen und der Entwertung des Peso auf die Einkommen beider Regionen zu analysieren. Das Wachstum des maquiladora Sektors wahrend des ersten NAFTA Jahres, gekoppelt mit den Auswirkungen der Multiplikatoren ergab in Arizona einen hoheren Einkommenszuwachs als in Sonora. Das Muster der Elastizitat der Wechselkursraten diente dazu, die Auswirkung der Entwertung des Peso zu dampfen, indem die Nachfrage aus Sonora nach Waren aus Arizona herabsetzte, und trotz niedrigeren Reallohnen die maqiladora Erwerbstatigkeit der Arbeitskrafte Sonoras anzuheben.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Silvers, 2000. "Limited Linkage, Demand Shifts and the Transboundary Transmission of Regional Growth," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 239-251.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:34:y:2000:i:3:p:239-251
    DOI: 10.1080/00343400050015087
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