Beyond the numbers: unveiling the environmental impacts of international tourism and the role of renewable energy transition

In pursuit of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 objectives for a sustainable and low-carbon future, this study examines the intricate dynamics between carbon emissions and key variables crucial to the nation's decarbonisation strategy. Grounded in the Triple Bottom Line (TBL) Theory, the chosen variables – sustainable tourism, renewable energy demand, and natural resource management – take centre stage. Applying Markov switching regime regression to data spanning 1990–2022, our findings reveal a positive association between international tourism and carbon emissions, aligning with the Tourism-induced Environmental Impact theory. Incorporating the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), our results illustrate a U-shaped relationship. Renewable energy consumption (REC) exhibits a negative impact, supporting EKC's premise that economic development and cleaner energy adoption mitigate environmental degradation. Identified as influential factors affecting carbon emissions, Economic growth and natural resource capital find theoretical backing. The second power of economic expansion positively influences carbon emissions, while the square of natural resources has a negative impact, aligning with resource scarcity theories. Granger causality estimates validate Tourism-led Growth, Resource Capital, and Emissions-led Growth hypotheses. Integrating insights from the Community-Based Tourism (CBT) and stakeholder theory, this study provides actionable insights for policymakers steering Saudi Arabia toward a sustainable, low-carbon future.