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Forecasting a post-COVID-19 economic crisis using fuzzy cognitive maps: a Spanish tourism-sector perspective

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  • Julio Vena-Oya
  • José Alberto Castañeda-García
  • Miguel Ángel Rodríguez-Molina

Abstract

Those in positions of leadership are accustomed to having to deal with complex and uncertain situations. However, the on-going COVID-19 pandemic has taken this challenge to a new level of complexity. Although econometric models are being used to predict economic scenarios relating to the fall-out from the pandemic, these forecasts do not factor-in the uncertainty generated by new changes announced weekly by policymakers. The aim of the present study is therefore to apply a fuzzy approach to develop a method for providing consistent and reliable forecasting scenarios that facilitate managers’ and policymaker’s decision-making in complex and uncertain situations. The chosen context of the study is the case of the potential consequences of COVID-19 for the international tourism sector in Spain, using fuzzy cognitive maps. This semi-quantitative model can help researchers to forecast the potential impact of major events in fuzzy or uncertain environments by constructing flexible and adaptable scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Vena-Oya & José Alberto Castañeda-García & Miguel Ángel Rodríguez-Molina, 2022. "Forecasting a post-COVID-19 economic crisis using fuzzy cognitive maps: a Spanish tourism-sector perspective," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(13), pages 2048-2062, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rcitxx:v:25:y:2022:i:13:p:2048-2062
    DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2021.1944995
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    Cited by:

    1. Osorio, Pilar & Cadarso, María-Ángeles & Tobarra, María-Ángeles & García-Alaminos, Ángela, 2023. "Carbon footprint of tourism in Spain: Covid-19 impact and a look forward to recovery," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 303-318.

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