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Is terrorism a real threat to tourism development? Analysis of inbound and domestic tourist arrivals in Turkey

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  • Huseyin Karamelikli
  • Ashfak Ahmad Khan
  • Mohammad Sharif Karimi

Abstract

This study estimates the long-run and short-run impact of terrorist incidents on inbound and domestic tourist arrivals in Turkey by using a non-linear autoregressive lag (NARDL) model for the period between 2007 and 2016. The results reveal unidirectional nonlinear relationships from terrorism to tourism in both the long-run and short run. Inbound and domestic tourists show different respond towards an increase or decrease in terrorist incidents. The findings are expected to help tourism management, planning, and forecasting regarding greater economic benefits for the country. We suggest that improving security measures and effective safety procedures in tourist areas can reduce terrorist incidents in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Huseyin Karamelikli & Ashfak Ahmad Khan & Mohammad Sharif Karimi, 2020. "Is terrorism a real threat to tourism development? Analysis of inbound and domestic tourist arrivals in Turkey," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 2165-2181, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rcitxx:v:23:y:2020:i:17:p:2165-2181
    DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2019.1681945
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    Cited by:

    1. Chi, Junwook, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates on international air travel demand: The case from Hong Kong," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    2. Layal Mansour-Ichrakieh, 2021. "The Impact of Israeli and Saudi Arabian Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Jan Andrzej Wendt & Agnieszka Bógdał-Brzezińska, 2024. "Security and Securitization as Topics in Sustainability and Tourism Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-15, January.
    4. Huseyin Karamelikli & Mohammad Sharif Karimi, 2022. "Asymmetric relationship between interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1269-1279, January.
    5. Pengxia Shen & Ping Yin & Bingjie Niu, 2023. "Assessing the Combined Effects of Transportation Infrastructure on Regional Tourism Development in China Using a Spatial Econometric Model (GWPR)," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.

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