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A review of Delphi forecasting research in tourism

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  • Vera Shanshan Lin
  • Haiyan Song

Abstract

The Delphi technique is the most popular judgemental forecasting method in tourism studies, but theoretical and empirical developments in this area (especially for forecasting purposes) have been slow. This paper analyses published research on Delphi forecasting in tourism and hospitality, explores how the Delphi forecasting method has progressed over the past four decades in terms of topical areas, empirical applications, and issues of reliability and validity, and is thus expected to advance understanding of the Delphi technique, providing topical and methodological recommendations for researchers and industry practitioners for producing accurate forecasts. The literature concerning the qualitative and quantitative applications of Delphi forecasting in tourism is mainly divided into three research themes: event forecasting, forecasting tourism demand, and forecasting future trends/market conditions (the most popular application). Issues of accuracy, reliability, and validity, as well as a group of Delphi-specific characteristics, such as panel size, panel selection, consensus measures, and analysis of results, are summarized and discussed. This study also examines the accuracy of Delphi forecasts as well as exploring the role of the Delphi approach in integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Vera Shanshan Lin & Haiyan Song, 2015. "A review of Delphi forecasting research in tourism," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 1099-1131, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rcitxx:v:18:y:2015:i:12:p:1099-1131
    DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2014.967187
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    Cited by:

    1. Haodong Sun & Yang Yang & Yanyan Chen & Xiaoming Liu & Jiachen Wang, 2023. "Tourism demand forecasting of multi-attractions with spatiotemporal grid: a convolutional block attention module model," Information Technology & Tourism, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 205-233, June.
    2. Anyu Liu & Laura Vici & Vicente Ramos & Sauveur Giannoni & Adam Blake, 2021. "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team," Post-Print hal-04653783, HAL.
    3. Brida Juan Gabriel & Moreno Leonardo & Scaglione Miriam, 2024. "Modeling multivariate tourism expenditure using vine copula: empirical findings from of Fribourg-Switzerland," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 4093-4116, October.

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