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Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and Lewis turning point in China

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  • Fang Cai

Abstract

The disagreements on changed stages of demographic transition and the role of a demographic dividend in a dual economy development process often lead to wide debates among scholars about China's development stages. This paper tries to reveal the nexus between demographic transition and dual economy development: the common starting point, close-related processes, and identical characteristics of stages. Based on the empirical evidence of population dynamics, the paper supports the judgment of diminishing demographic dividends and an imminent Lewis turning point in China. The paper also argues that keeping a sustainable and steady economic growth, and becoming a high-income country as early as possible is the key and only way to close the ‘aging before affluence’ gap. Accordingly, the paper concludes by proposing measures to exploit the potential of the first demographic dividend, creating conditions for a second demographic dividend, and tapping new sources of economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang Cai, 2010. "Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and Lewis turning point in China," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-119.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rcejxx:v:3:y:2010:i:2:p:107-119
    DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2010.511899
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Zheyuan & Zhao, Zhong, 2023. "Women's education and fertility in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Sanhua Sheng & Hua Li & Weijun He & Thomas Stephen Ramsey & Liang Yuan, 2023. "The effect of property rights and staff structure on the labor productivity, evidence of university spin-offs in Hubei Province, China," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 14(5), pages 1855-1865, October.
    3. Wan Tang & Qingxin Lan, 2024. "Does digital trade promote China’s manufacturing industry upgrading?—based on structure rationalization perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-23, June.
    4. Shanfei Zhang, 2023. "The externality impact of internal migration in China: Linear and nonlinear approaches," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 11, Stata Users Group.
    5. Le Chen & Leshui Yu & Jiangbin Yin & Meijun Xi, 2023. "Impact of Population Density on Spatial Differences in the Economic Growth of Urban Agglomerations: The Case of Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-18, October.
    6. Evans, Olaniyi, 2022. "The criticality of institutions and the macroeconomy for education outcomes in Africa," MPRA Paper 118197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zhou, Jing & Chen, Huashuai, 2023. "Will reducing the burden of extracurricular tutoring raise fertility willingness in China? Five policy suggestions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1132-1147.
    8. Zhou, Yang & Wang, Heng & Qiu, Huanguang, 2023. "Population aging reduces carbon emissions: Evidence from China's latest three censuses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    9. Zhiyuan Ma & Yunli Bai & Linxiu Zhang, 2024. "Sustainable Development of the Rural Labor Market in China from the Perspective of Occupation Structure Transformation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-22, April.

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