Investigating factors affecting trade flows in pork and poultry global markets using gravity models

We aim to analyse factors affecting global trade in pork and poultry markets by examining trade flow determinants through gravity models. Our gravity model analysis focuses on non-tariff measures (i.e., sanitary and phytosanitary, technical barriers to trade, and other non-tariff measures) and climate change (i.e., temperature abnormalities, precipitation abnormalities, and climatological catastrophes). Our results confirm the theoretical ambiguity of the standards-trade effects. For pork trade, sanitary and phytosanitary measures are more trade-restrictive than tariffs. For poultry trade, technical barriers to trade operate as a trade catalyst, while other non-tariff measures function as a trade barrier. Policymakers should aim for a balance between protecting public health and facilitating trade. Temperature abnormalities in importing countries harm pork and poultry imports, while precipitation abnormalities in exporting countries negatively influence poultry exports. Climatological catastrophes slightly decrease pork imports (poultry exports). Encouraging climate adaptation measures within the agricultural and food processing sectors can help mitigate production and trade disruptions for exporters and supply disruptions for importers.