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The Prevalence of Prosperous Shrinking Cities

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  • Maxwell Hartt

Abstract

The majority of the shrinking cities literature focuses solely on instances of population loss and economic decline. This article argues that shrinking cities exist on a spectrum between prosperity and decline. Taking a wider view of population loss, I explore the possibility of prosperous shrinking cities: if they exist, where they exist, and under what conditions shrinking cities can thrive. Examining census place data from the 1980 to 2010 U.S. Census and American Community Surveys, 27 percent of 886 shrinking cities were found to have income levels greater than their surrounding regions. Shrinking and prosperous shrinking cities of all sizes were found across the United States. Shrinkage was most prevalent in the Rust Belt region and prosperous shrinkage in coastal regions. Prosperous shrinking cities were overwhelmingly found within megapolitan regions and were rarely principal cities. Multivariate regression analysis found that both population (city size) and the severity of shrinkage (magnitude of population loss) had no effect on economic prosperity. Talent (location quotient of education) was found to be the strongest predictor of prosperous shrinkage. Key Words: demographic change, economic prosperity, shrinking city, urban decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxwell Hartt, 2019. "The Prevalence of Prosperous Shrinking Cities," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(5), pages 1651-1670, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:raagxx:v:109:y:2019:i:5:p:1651-1670
    DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2019.1580132
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Qi Wang & Zhongling Xin & Fangqu Niu, 2022. "Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Shrinking Cities in China: Evidence from Nighttime Light," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Anastasiya Matyushkina, 2023. "How Civil Society Organizations Drive Innovative Cultural Strategies in Shrinking Cities: A Comparative Case Study of Oberhausen, Germany and Riga, Latvia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, April.
    3. David Bogataj & Marija Bogataj & Samo Drobne, 2020. "Sustainability of an Activity Node in Global Supply Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-23, October.
    4. Bartłomiej T. Sroka, 2022. "Urban Shrinkage as a Catalyst of a Transition, Revolving around Definitions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-12, October.
    5. Haoyang Kang & Meichen Fu & Haoran Kang & Lijiao Li & Xu Dong & Sijia Li, 2024. "The Impacts of Urban Population Growth and Shrinkage on the Urban Land Use Efficiency: A Case Study of the Northeastern Region of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-27, September.
    6. Raisa Țăruș & Ștefan Dezsi & Andreea M. Crăciun & Florin Pop & Claudia E. Tudorache, 2022. "Urban Shrinking Cities in Romania and The Netherlands—A Possible Policy Framing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
    7. Ondřej Slach & Vojtěch Bosák & Luděk Krtička & Alexandr Nováček & Petr Rumpel, 2019. "Urban Shrinkage and Sustainability: Assessing the Nexus between Population Density, Urban Structures and Urban Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-22, August.
    8. Mihail Eva & Alexandra Cehan & Alexandra Lazăr, 2021. "Patterns of Urban Shrinkage: A Systematic Analysis of Romanian Cities (1992–2020)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-23, July.

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