A static replication approach for callable interest rate derivatives: mathematical foundations and efficient estimation of SIMM–MVA

The computation of credit risk measures such as exposure and Credit Value Adjustments (CVA) requires the simulation of future portfolio prices. Recent metrics, such as dynamic Initial Margin (IM) and Margin Value Adjustments (MVA) additionally require the simulation of future conditional sensitivities. For portfolios with non-linear instruments that do not admit closed-form valuation formulas, this poses a significant computational challenge. This problem is addressed by proposing a static replication algorithm for interest rate options with early-exercise features under an affine term-structure model. Under the appropriate conditions, we can find an equivalent portfolio of vanilla options that replicate these products. Specifically, we decompose the product into a portfolio of European swaptions. The weights and strikes of the portfolio are obtained by regressing the target option value with interpretable, feed-forward neural networks. Once an equivalent portfolio of European swaptions is determined, we can leverage on closed-form expressions to obtain the conditional prices and sensitivities, which serve as an input to exposure and SIMM-driven MVA quantification. For a consistent forward sensitivity estimation, this involves the differentiation of the portfolio-weights. The accuracy and convergence of the method is demonstrated through several representative numerical examples, benchmarked against the established least-square Monte Carlo method.