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Option prices and stock market momentum: evidence from China

Author

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  • Jianping Li
  • Yanzhen Yao
  • Yibing Chen
  • Cheng-Few Lee

Abstract

Option prices tend to be correlated to past stock market returns due to market imperfections. We unprecedentedly examine this issue on the SSE 50 ETF option in the Chinese derivatives market. To measure the price pressure in the options market, we construct an implied volatility spread based on pairs of the SSE 50 ETF option with identical expiration dates and strike prices. By regressing the implied volatility spread on past stock returns, we find that past stock returns exert a strong influence on the pricing of index options. Specifically, we find that SSE 50 ETF calls are significantly overvalued relative to SSE 50 ETF puts after stock price increases and the reverse is also true after the stock price decreases. Moreover, we validate the momentum effects in the underlying stock market to be responsible for the price pressure. These findings are both economically and statistically significant and have important implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianping Li & Yanzhen Yao & Yibing Chen & Cheng-Few Lee, 2018. "Option prices and stock market momentum: evidence from China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 1517-1529, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:18:y:2018:i:9:p:1517-1529
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2018.1444461
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Xiao-Jian & Wang, Zi-Ling & Xiao, Wei-Lin, 2020. "Is the nonlinear hedge of options more effective?—Evidence from the SSE 50 ETF options in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Li, Bo & Liu, Zhenya & Teka, Hanen & Wang, Shixuan, 2023. "The evolvement of momentum effects in China: Evidence from functional data analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Yibing Chen & Cheng-Few Lee & John Lee & Jow-Ran Chang, 2018. "Alternative Methods to Estimate Implied Variance: Review and Comparison," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(04), pages 1-28, December.
    4. Zaremba, Adam & Mikutowski, Mateusz & Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2021. "The alpha momentum effect in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Da Dong & Qingfu Liu & Pingping Tao & Zhiliang Ying, 2021. "The pricing mechanism between ETF option and spot markets in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1286-1300, August.
    6. Junshu Jiang & Jordan Richards & Raphael Huser & David Bolin, 2024. "The Efficient Tail Hypothesis: An Extreme Value Perspective on Market Efficiency," Papers 2408.06661, arXiv.org.
    7. Chen, Zhonglu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Is investor sentiment stronger than VIX and uncertainty indices in predicting energy volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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