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Modelling illiquidity spillovers with Hawkes processes: an application to the sovereign bond market

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  • M. Schneider
  • F. Lillo
  • L. Pelizzon

Abstract

Modelling the dynamics of (il)liquidity across assets is an important yet complicated task, especially when considering significant deteriorations of liquidity conditions. Here, we propose a peak-over-threshold method to identify abrupt liquidity drops from limit order book data and we model the time-series of these illiquidity events across multiple assets as a multivariate Hawkes process. This allows us to quantify both the self-excitation of extreme changes of liquidity in the same asset (illiquidity spirals) and the cross-excitation across different assets (illiquidity spillovers). Applying the method to the MTS sovereign bond market, we find significant evidence for both illiquidity spillovers and spirals. The proportion of shocks explained by illiquidity spillovers roughly doubles from 2011 to 2015, suggesting an increased synchronization of extreme illiquidity across assets.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Schneider & F. Lillo & L. Pelizzon, 2018. "Modelling illiquidity spillovers with Hawkes processes: an application to the sovereign bond market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 283-293, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:18:y:2018:i:2:p:283-293
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2017.1403155
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    Cited by:

    1. de Roure, Calebe & Mönch, Emanuel & Pelizzon, Loriana & Schneider, Michael, 2019. "OTC discount," Discussion Papers 42/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
      • de Roure, Calebe & Mönch, Emanuel & Pelizzon, Loriana & Schneider, Michael, 2021. "OTC discount," SAFE Working Paper Series 298, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2021.
    2. Linas Jurksas & Deimante Teresiene & Rasa Kanapickiene, 2021. "Liquidity Spill-Overs in Sovereign Bond Market: An Intra-Day Study of Trade Shocks in Calm and Stressful Market Conditions," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Cheng, Chunli & Hilpert, Christian & Miri Lavasani, Aidin & Schaefer, Mick, 2023. "Surrender contagion in life insurance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1465-1479.
    4. Fabio Vanni & David Lambert, 2023. "A detection analysis for temporal memory patterns at different time-scales," Papers 2309.12034, arXiv.org.
    5. Jurksas Linas, 2018. "What Factors Shape the Liquidity Levels of Euro Area Sovereign Bonds?," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 154-166, December.
    6. Daragh Clancy & Peter G. Dunne & Pasquale Filiani, 2019. "Liquidity and tail-risk interdependencies in the euro area sovereign bond market," Working Papers 41, European Stability Mechanism.

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