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The survival probability of the SABR model: asymptotics and application

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  • Nian Yang
  • Xiangwei Wan

Abstract

The stochastic-alpha-beta-rho (SABR) model is widely used by practitioners in interest rate and foreign exchange markets. The probability of hitting zero sheds light on the arbitrage-free small strike implied volatility of the SABR model (see, e.g. De Marco et al. [SIAM J. Financ. Math., 2017, 8(1), 709–737], Gulisashvili [Int. J. Theor. Appl. Financ., 2015, 18, 1550013], Gulisashvili et al. [Mass at zero in the uncorrelated SABR modeland implied volatility asymptotics, 2016b]), and the survival probability is also closely related to binary knock-out options. Besides, the study of the survival probability is mathematically challenging. This paper provides novel asymptotic formulas for the survival probability of the SABR model as well as error estimates. The formulas give the probability that the forward price does not hit a nonnegative lower boundary before a fixed time horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Nian Yang & Xiangwei Wan, 2018. "The survival probability of the SABR model: asymptotics and application," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 1767-1779, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:18:y:2018:i:10:p:1767-1779
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2017.1422083
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    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Jaehyuk & Wu, Lixin, 2021. "The equivalent constant-elasticity-of-variance (CEV) volatility of the stochastic-alpha-beta-rho (SABR) model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Jaehyuk Choi & Minsuk Kwak & Chyng Wen Tee & Yumeng Wang, 2021. "A Black-Scholes user's guide to the Bachelier model," Papers 2104.08686, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    3. Jaehyuk Choi & Minsuk Kwak & Chyng Wen Tee & Yumeng Wang, 2022. "A Black–Scholes user's guide to the Bachelier model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 959-980, May.

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