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Smooth nonparametric Bernstein vine copulas

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  • Marcus Scheffer
  • Gregor N. F. Weiß

Abstract

We consider the problem of accurately modelling the distribution of the market risk of a multivariate financial portfolio. We employ a multivariate GARCH model in which the dependence structure between the assets is modelled via a vine copula. We address the problem of how the parametric pair-copulas in a vine copula should be chosen by proposing to use nonparametric Bernstein copulas as bivariate pair-copulas. An extensive simulation study illustrates that our smooth nonparametric vine copula model is able to match the results of a competing parametric vine model calibrated via Akaike’s Information Criterion while at the same time significantly reducing model risk. Our empirical analysis of financial market data demonstrates that our proposed model yields Value-at-Risk forecasts that are significantly more accurate than those of a benchmark parametric model.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Scheffer & Gregor N. F. Weiß, 2017. "Smooth nonparametric Bernstein vine copulas," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 139-156, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:139-156
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2016.1185141
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    Cited by:

    1. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Abhay K. Singh, 2017. "Risk Measurement and Risk Modelling Using Applications of Vine Copulas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-34, September.
    2. Eling, Martin & Jung, Kwangmin, 2018. "Copula approaches for modeling cross-sectional dependence of data breach losses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 167-180.
    3. Nagler Thomas & Schellhase Christian & Czado Claudia, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of simplified vine copula models: comparison of methods," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 99-120, January.
    4. Oh, Rosy & Jeong, Himchan & Ahn, Jae Youn & Valdez, Emiliano A., 2021. "A multi-year microlevel collective risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 309-328.

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