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Contagion models a la carte: which one to choose?

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  • Harry Zheng

Abstract

We propose a copula contagion mixture model for correlated default times. The model includes the well-known factor, copula, and contagion models as its special cases. The key advantage of such a model is that we can study the interaction of different models and their pricing impact. Specifically, we model the default times of the underlying names in a reference portfolio to follow contagion intensity processes with exponential decay coupled with a copula dependence structure. We also model the default time of the counterparty and its dependence structure with the reference portfolio. Numerical tests show that correlation and contagion have an enormous joint impact on the rates of CDO tranches and the corresponding credit value adjustments are extremely high to compensate for the wrong-way risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Harry Zheng, 2013. "Contagion models a la carte: which one to choose?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 399-405, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:13:y:2013:i:3:p:399-405
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2012.708428
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    Cited by:

    1. Yao Tung Huang & Qingshuo Song & Harry Zheng, 2015. "Weak Convergence of Path-Dependent SDEs in Basket CDS Pricing with Contagion Risk," Papers 1506.00082, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    2. Boros, Péter, 2020. "A hitelminősítői bejelentések fertőző hatásai és a hitelértékelési kiigazítás [Rating migration, credit risk contagion and Credit Valuation Adjustment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 140-163.
    3. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Xiao-Fen Zheng & Tom Fong, 2018. "Probabilistic approach to measuring early-warning signals of systemic contagion risk," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-25, June.
    4. Geon Ho Choe & Hyun Jin Jang & Soon Won Kwon, 2015. "A factor contagion model for portfolio credit derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 1571-1582, September.
    5. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Xiao-Fen Zheng & Tom Fong, 2015. "Measuring Contagion-Induced Funding Liquidity Risk in Sovereign Debt Markets," Working Papers 182015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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