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Calibrating structural models: a new methodology based on stock and credit default swap data

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  • Santiago Forte

Abstract

This paper presents a modified version of Leland and Toft's [J. Finance, 1996, 51, 987–1019] structural credit risk model, together with a novel calibration methodology based on stock and CDS data: the firm asset value and volatility are consistently derived from equity prices; the default barrier is calibrated from CDS premia. It empirically shows that as long as the appropriate default barrier is selected, the model generates time series of stock market implied credit spreads that fit the times series of CDS spreads. Moreover, CDS implied default barriers prove to be consistent with stockholders’ rationality, with predictions made by structural models with endogenous default, and with historical recovery rates.

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  • Santiago Forte, 2011. "Calibrating structural models: a new methodology based on stock and credit default swap data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 1745-1759.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:11:y:2011:i:12:p:1745-1759
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2010.550308
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    Cited by:

    1. Han-Hsing Lee & Kuanyu Shih & Kehluh Wang, 2016. "Measuring sovereign credit risk using a structural model approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1097-1128, November.
    2. Santiago Forte & Lidija Lovreta, 2015. "Time†Varying Credit Risk Discovery in the Stock and CDS Markets: Evidence from Quiet and Crisis Times," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 430-461, June.
    3. Forte, Santiago & Lovreta, Lidija, 2012. "Endogenizing exogenous default barrier models: The MM algorithm," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1639-1652.
    4. González-Pla, Francisco & Lovreta, Lidija, 2019. "Persistence in firm’s asset and equity volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    5. Forte, Santiago & Lovreta, Lidija, 2019. "Volatility discovery: Can the CDS market beat the equity options market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 107-111.
    6. González-Pla, Francisco & Lovreta, Lidija, 2022. "Modeling and forecasting firm-specific volatility: The role of asymmetry and long-memory," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    7. Forte, Santiago & Lovreta, Lidija, 2023. "Credit default swaps, the leverage effect, and cross-sectional predictability of equity and firm asset volatility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Lovreta, Lidija & Silaghi, Florina, 2020. "The surface of implied firm’s asset volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Veronika Kajurova & Jana Hvozdenska, 2016. "Linkages between CDS, bond and stock markets: Evidence from Europe," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2016-63, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.

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