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New development: The remarkable insignificance of NHS England's CCG funding formula

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  • Mervyn Stone

Abstract

This article resolves a long-standing question about the financial performance of small-area funding bodies in England's National Health Service--whether or not surpluses or deficits are due to over- or under-provision of funds relative to what is thought necessary to fund healthcare, in line with targets set by a funding formula. Multivariate regression of per capita surplus on the two variables (actual allocation and target allocation), for the first year of operation of 211 clinical commissioning groups (CCGs), revealed a decisively insignificant P-value for the target variable--once account had been taken of the distance of allocation from target. To help statisticians maintain that the target formula has no rational basis, this article conjectures that the correlation of surplus and 'distance from target' is a managerial artefact divorced from the costs of healthcare provision.

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  • Mervyn Stone, 2015. "New development: The remarkable insignificance of NHS England's CCG funding formula," Public Money & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 311-314, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pubmmg:v:35:y:2015:i:4:p:311-314
    DOI: 10.1080/09540962.2015.1047277
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mervyn Stone, 2005. "Accumulating Evidence of Malfunctioning Contractual Government Machinery," Public Money & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 82-86, April.
    2. Jane Galbraith & Mervyn Stone, 2011. "The abuse of regression in the National Health Service allocation formulae: response to the Department of Health's 2007 ‘resource allocation research paper’," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(3), pages 517-528, July.
    3. Mervyn Stone & Jane Galbraith, 2006. "How not to fund hospital and community health services in England," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(1), pages 143-164, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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