Alternative paths to structural adjustment in a three-gap model: the case of Uzbekistan

This study presents an internally consistent macroeconomic framework that could be used as a first step toward a more comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessment of the adjustment alternatives facing Uzbekistan. The three-gap frame work focuses on the major imbalances of the economy for evaluating policy choices facing Uzbekistan. It lays emphasis on both domestic and external factors that determine economic outcomes and welfare. An attempt is made to quantify two policy scenarios (gradual as against an accelerated policy implementation strategy). It turns out that an aggressive adjustment policy would indeed improve most perform ance and welfare indicators. Two major ingredients of such an aggressive adjustment strategy are the unification of the exchange rate and implementation of current account convertibility in the balance of payments. The study also draws attention to the relative importance of external financing and the sustainability of the balance of payments under alternative structural adjustment paths facing Uzbek istan.