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Does the way civil wars end affect the pattern of post-conflict development?

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  • Frances Stewart
  • Rachita Daga

Abstract

This paper explores whether the way a conflict ends affects the pattern of post-conflict development. It investigates all major conflicts which ended after 1990, and the development patterns which ensued for five years after the conflict ended. Three categories of conflict-ending are explored: a victory by one side (V), a Peace Agreement (PA) and a cease-fire agreement (CFA). The paper explores case studies of three sets of paired comparisons, and investigates statistical relationships in the sample as a whole. Paired comparisons are of Guatemala and Peru, Nepal and Sri Lanka, and Burundi and Rwanda. Broadly, V countries are shown to have higher growth and a greater reduction in infant mortality than the other countries, and a lower index of civil liberties. PA countries receive more aid and spend more on the social sectors. CFA countries tend to have the most civil liberties. The paired comparisons confirm these findings and also suggest that post-conflict developments in PA countries are more inclusive than those in V countries. These are exploratory findings, handicapped by data deficiencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Frances Stewart & Rachita Daga, 2017. "Does the way civil wars end affect the pattern of post-conflict development?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 145-170, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oxdevs:v:45:y:2017:i:2:p:145-170
    DOI: 10.1080/13600818.2016.1263727
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. James McHugh & Mr. Theodora Kosma & Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 2002. "The Economics of Post Conflict Aid," IMF Working Papers 2002/198, International Monetary Fund.
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    3. Devon E. A. Curtis, 2014. "Local Agency, Development Assistance and the Legacies of Rebellion in Burundi and Rwanda," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-128, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Awel, Ahmed Mohammed, 2012. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 45453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    6. Siddiqui, Danish Ahmed & Ahmed, Qazi Masood, 2009. "Institutions and Economic Growth: A Cross country Evidence," MPRA Paper 19747, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Marijke Verpoorten, 2014. "Growth, poverty and inequality in Rwanda: a broad perspective," Working Papers of LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance 490896, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julie Litchfield & Elodie Douarin & Fatlinda Gashi, 2021. "Angry men and Civic women? Gendered effects of conflict on political participation," HiCN Working Papers 355, Households in Conflict Network.

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