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The effects of oil price uncertainty on economic activities in South Africa

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  • Junior T. Chiweza
  • Goodness C. Aye

Abstract

This paper investigates the link between oil price uncertainty shocks and key macroeconomic indicators of a net oil importing country, South Africa. Monthly data covering the period 1990:01 to 2015:12 is used. The Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) methodology is applied incorporating realized volatility as an indicator of oil price uncertainty to investigate the short run effects of oil price uncertainty. The Generalised Impulse Response Functions (GIRF) analysis reveals that for most variables, oil price uncertainty shock has an adverse and persistent effect over time. Consistent with GIRF, the Generalised Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (GFEVDs) analysis also points out that oil price uncertainty shocks contributes substantially to variations in real output, inflation and various macroeconomic variables of South Africa. Therefore, SVAR analysis reveals the significant role of exogenous oil prices on the economy of South Africa when price uncertainty shocks exist. The policy implications of these findings are drawn.

Suggested Citation

  • Junior T. Chiweza & Goodness C. Aye, 2018. "The effects of oil price uncertainty on economic activities in South Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1518117-151, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:1518117
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2018.1518117
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yue & Zhang, Zhenke & Xu, Minghui, 2023. "Evolution pattern of African countries' oil trade under the changing in the global oil market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    2. Sheng, Xin & Kim, Won Joong & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 520-532.
    3. Arodh Lal Karn & Bhavana Raj Kondamudi & Ravi Kumar Gupta & Denis A. Pustokhin & Irina V. Pustokhina & Meshal Alharbi & Subramaniyaswamy Vairavasundaram & Vijayakumar Varadarajan & Sudhakar Sengan, 2022. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Energy Price Shocks for Sustainable Energy on the Macro-Economy of South Asian Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Ebenezer Olamide & Andrew Maredza & Kanayo Ogujiuba, 2022. "Monetary Policy, External Shocks and Economic Growth Dynamics in East Africa: An S-VAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Abdimalik Ali Warsame, 2022. "Does Oil Price Affect the Economic Growth in Somalia Asymmetrically?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 47-54, September.
    6. Aye, Goodness C. & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2021. "Oil prices and agricultural growth in South Africa: A threshold analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Snarska, Małgorzata, 2021. "The role of oil price uncertainty shocks on oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Ebenezer Olamide & Kanayo Ogujiuba & Andrew Maredza, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Panel Data Approach for SADC," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, March.
    9. Han Liu & Ying Liu & Yonglian Wang, 2021. "Exploring the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between tourism and economic growth with an MF-VAR model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1081-1100, August.
    10. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "The role of economic development for the effect of oil market shocks on oil-exporting countries. Evidence from the interacted panel VAR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Tajuddin Tajuddin & Pasrun Adam & Yuwanda Purnamasari Pasrun & La Ode Saidi, 2021. "Effects of Crude Oil Prices Volatility, the Internet and Inflation on Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 15-21.
    12. Tan, Yan & Uprasen, Utai, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on income inequality in ASEAN countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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