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Exploration vs. acquisition of oil and gas reserves: Effect on stock returns

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  • Bård Misund

Abstract

This paper examines how oil and gas companies’ reserves growth affects their share price returns. In particular we examine three issues affecting the relation between reserves changes and oil and gas firm returns. First, we examine if investors value reserves replacement as a result of exploration activities differently to reserves growth through acquisitions. In the second analysis, we test if reserves replacement of oil reserves impacts stock returns differently than changes in gas reserves do. Third, we examine the impact of the Shale gas revolution and the subsequent oil and gas price divergence on the association between returns and replacement of oil versus gas reserves. The results suggest that investors seem to be indifferent to reserves replacement strategy (exploration or acquisition). However, we find that changes in oil reserves impact oil and gas company returns differently than changes in gas reserves does. Moreover, we find that there has been a structural shift in the relation between returns and changes in gas reserves (but not changes in oil reserves) after 2008, coinciding with the Shale gas revolution and the break in the oil-gas price link. This latter result can be relevant for understanding the impact of the recent fall in oil prices on investor valuation of oil and gas reserves.

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  • Bård Misund, 2018. "Exploration vs. acquisition of oil and gas reserves: Effect on stock returns," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1443368-144, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:1443368
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2018.1443368
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    Cited by:

    1. Tega Anighoro, 2020. "Value relevance of the components of oil and gas reserve quantity change disclosures of upstream oil and gas companies in the london stock exchange," Papers 2005.14659, arXiv.org.
    2. Equiza-Goñi, Juan & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2020. "Impact of proved reserves on stock returns of U.S. oil and gas corporations using firm-level data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Vicknair, David & Tansey, Michael & O'Brien, Thomas E., 2022. "Measuring fossil fuel reserves: A simulation and review of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Ali, Muhammad Kashif & Zahoor, Muhammad Khurram & Saeed, Asif & Nosheen, Safia & Thanakijsombat, Thanarerk, 2023. "Institutional and country level determinants of vertical integration: New evidence from the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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