Key determinants of tax revenue in Zimbabwe: assessment using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

The study investigates the determinants of tax revenue in Zimbabwe using the ARDL approach for the period 1980 to 2022. This study aims to offer a thorough summary of the different factors that influence tax revenue within the framework of economic and social factors. The variables included in the analysis are GDP growth, the share of agriculture in GDP, private consumption expenditure, inflation, foreign direct investment, real interest rates, trade openness, shadow economy and population growth. The results indicate that private consumption expenditure and share of agriculture in GDP negatively and significantly impact tax revenue in the long run. GDP growth, inflation, foreign direct investment and real interest rates exhibit a positive but insignificant impact on tax revenue. Trade openness, shadow economy and population growth are negatively and insignificantly related to tax revenue. The short-run analysis indicates that lagged tax revenue, GDP growth, private consumption expenditure, inflation, and trade openness significantly impact tax revenue, while the share of agriculture in GDP and the shadow economy significantly hinder tax revenue. Real interest rates and population growth have positive but insignificant impacts on tax revenue. The study’s findings provide valuable guidance to policymakers in formulating policies and strategies that enhance tax revenue collection and support the government’s domestic resources mobilisation agenda by uncovering the relationships between tax revenue and its determinants.This research paper provides an in-depth analysis of the determinants of tax revenue in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2022 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. By examining various economic and social factors, such as GDP growth, private consumption expenditure, the share of agriculture in GDP, inflation, foreign direct investment, and the shadow economy, the study uncovers both short-term and long-term relationships between these variables and tax revenue. The findings have significant implications for policymakers, offering valuable guidance on enhancing tax revenue collection and supporting Zimbabwe’s domestic resource mobilisation agenda.The research offers crucial insights into the factors influencing Zimbabwe’s tax revenue performance, which is vital for economic stability and government prosperity. By identifying both the positive and negative impacts of various economic and social factors on tax revenue, the study provides policymakers with a robust foundation for designing effective fiscal policies. The findings emphasise the need for targeted strategies to enhance tax compliance, broaden the tax base, and address challenges the shadow economy poses. Additionally, the research contributes to the broader understanding of tax revenue dynamics in developing countries, making it a valuable resource for economists, analysts, and policymakers working in similar contexts.