IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/oaefxx/v12y2024i1p2355017.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relationship among macroeconomic factors and stock prices: cointegration approach from the Indian stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Sarika Keswani
  • Veerma Puri
  • Rimjhim Jha

Abstract

The performance of a stock market is intrinsically linked to the broader financial and economic landscape of a country. Stock prices, as integral indicators, not only mirror the financial health and collective economic circumstances of a nation but also serve as crucial barometers of tangible financial activities. This research paper aims to undertake a comprehensive exploration of the intricate relationship between specific macroeconomic determinants and the stock market within the context of India. Moreover, this study conducts an exhaustive analysis to assess the relative significance of these variables and their contributions to the predictive capacity of stock prices. This investigation harnesses a dataset consisting of monthly observations of the chosen macroeconomic variables. The outcomes of the cointegration analysis illuminate a robust and statistically significant long-term association between Indian stock prices and the selected macroeconomic factors. The results of the cointegration test affirm a lasting nexus between stock returns and crucial economic indicators, namely Gross Domestic Product (GDP), disposable income, and the participation of Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) in the market. Furthermore, this study underscores the enduring negative relationship between stock returns and factors, such as interest rates, government policies, exchange rates, and inflation. These findings provide valuable insights into the interplay between the stock market and macroeconomic forces in the Indian context.This study comprehensively examines the intricate relationship between macroeconomic variables and the Indian stock market from 2009 to 2019. Utilizing a monthly dataset and rigorous statistical techniques, such as cointegration analysis and the VECM Granger causality test, the research elucidates a significant long-term relationship between macroeconomic variables like GDP, disposable income, and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) participation, and Indian stock prices.The empirical results reveal a negative correlation with interest rates, government policies, exchange rates, and inflation, and a positive long-term correlation with GDP, disposable income, and FII involvement. The cointegration tests substantiate these findings, reaffirming the enduring nature of these relationships.Furthermore, the VECM Granger causality test highlights the substantial impact of changes in these macroeconomic variables on short-term stock price fluctuations. The study’s conclusions shed new light on the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic factors and the stock market in India. By identifying the predictive capacity of key economic indicators on stock price movements, this research contributes to more informed and strategic decision-making for policymakers, investors, and economists, thereby enhancing the efficacy of economic planning and investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarika Keswani & Veerma Puri & Rimjhim Jha, 2024. "Relationship among macroeconomic factors and stock prices: cointegration approach from the Indian stock market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 2355017-235, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:12:y:2024:i:1:p:2355017
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2024.2355017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/23322039.2024.2355017
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/23322039.2024.2355017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:12:y:2024:i:1:p:2355017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/OAEF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.